The Key To 2024 Political Ad Strategy? Weeding Out Early Voters

Political campaigns that don’t rethink their ad strategies to include early voters won’t connect with those who still need to hear from them.

 As we now know, plenty of voters didn’t wait for election day to cast their ballots. Instead, 72 million citizens voted either through mail-in ballot requests or early voting — a 92% jump from the 2018 midterms. Yet, many campaigns were still working overtime up to election day to reach those very same voters days — and even weeks — after they cast their ballot. 

The result? By my estimate, more than half of political digital advertising dollars could have been wasted in 2022 by targeting audiences that included known early voters. That means as much as $1.5 billion in digital ad spend may have been squandered.

Now, all eyes are on the 2024 U.S. election cycle, forecasted to be the most expensive of all time, with ad expenditures exceeding $10 billion. That means campaigns and causes stand to lose even more of their limited ad dollars. 

Even worse, if they don’t rethink their ad strategies, it’s becoming increasingly likely they won’t connect their messages with the voters who still need to hear them. 

Early Voting Surge 

The 2024 election has plenty of surprises in store. But if voting patterns since 2020 continue, more voters will be casting their ballot early, no matter their ideology or age. 

In 2022, among sought-after unaffiliated voters, nearly 40% requested mail-in ballots, and they cast 55% of the early votes, according to our analysis. Among Democrats, 35% asked for mail-in ballots, and they cast 25% of early votes. About 20% of Republicans requested mail-in ballots, and they cast 19% of early votes. 

While early voters have skewed older in the past, that’s changing too. Some 63% of 2022’s early voters were younger than 65.

And with “historically close” vote counts during the 2022 midterms, accurately timing digital ad spend in 2024 could make all the difference between a win and a loss. 

Today’s most effective use of political ad dollars requires a flexible approach that considers early voting trends and emerging voter behaviors. With the countdown on to election night, now is the time for campaigns, causes and the agencies that serve them to revamp their digital advertising strategies to analyze carefully, plan early and monitor emerging trends. 

Data strategy has come a long way in the past few years. Campaigns can micro-target the voters they need to reach through analysis of publicly available information, self-reported data and other online signals, including social media activity. And digital tools and databases are making it easier to uncover whether citizens have voted, so campaigns can optimize their spend.

In politics, it is impossible to accurately predict what will happen. But, in 2024, the winning campaigns will be the ones able to quickly shift their advertising efforts to ensure that the voters who need to hear their message the most are getting it loud and clear.