Targeting Swing Voters: A Data-Driven Approach to Political Marketing

For the first time in our lives, the upcoming presidential election could pit an incumbent against a former president. Regardless of whether there is a 2024 blockbuster rematch, the reality is that Democrat and Republican campaigns will be less focused on courting their base.

Instead, 2024 will be a relentless pursuit of the most important constituency in one of the most remarkable elections of our lifetimes:

The swing voter.

Why Swing Voters Will Decide the Election

Independent voters have made up a resilient 40% or more of the electorate for nearly 15 years, according to Gallup.

Reaching these voters is a key reason why this presidential campaign is forecast to be the most expensive of all time, with ad expenditures exceeding $10 billion across platforms.

Yet even in today’s digital age, many campaigns still rely on:

• Gut feelings
• Exit polls
• Assumptions about voter behavior

This outdated approach often leads to:

• Inefficient targeting
• Wasted ad spend
• Missed opportunities to influence undecided voters

How Stirista Identifies and Reaches Swing Voters

This is where Stirista stands apart.

By combining connected TV (CTV) consumption data, purchase behavior, and social affinity insights, Stirista identifies voter clusters with a high degree of accuracy.

This enables campaigns to:

• Identify undecided voters
• Understand behavioral patterns
• Reach audiences across multiple channels

As Stirista SVP of Data Strategy Blaine Britten explains:

“We come from a consumer marketing world, meaning we aren’t just looking at political data—those segments that fall into categories like party affiliation or donation history. We look more broadly at consumer behavior.”

Understanding the Power of the Swing Voter

Political history shows just how influential swing voters can be.

• In the 2014 midterm elections, 54% of independent voters chose Republicans
• In 2018, that same percentage shifted to Democrats

This highlights a key reality:

Party loyalty may be declining—but swing voters ultimately decide outcomes.

In today’s polarized environment, where Red and Blue bases are largely fixed, the “malleable middle” will determine election results.

Using Behavioral Data to Predict Voter Trends

Stirista provides advertisers with unparalleled insights to reach voters where they are, when they’re there.

By layering multiple data points—such as:

• Viewing habits
• Purchase behavior
• Content consumption

Stirista can:

• Identify voter tendencies
• Predict future behavior
• Help campaigns measure influence over time

As Britten notes:

“You can see the Red and Blue political landscape forming, but there is a growing population of swing voters. When they suggest a lean, we can help push that lean into action.”

Stacking Data for Smarter Political Targeting

Stirista has evolved its data services to deliver identity-driven marketing solutions.

For example:

• A voter in Texas who drinks Black Rifle Coffee and watches Yellowstone may lean conservative
• A voter in Denver who shops at Whole Foods and watches The Handmaid’s Tale may lean liberal

By combining:

• Purchase patterns
• Programming affinity
• Content consumption

Stirista helps campaigns:

• Identify voters they don’t need to target
• Focus budget on persuadable audiences
• Improve overall campaign efficiency

Reducing Wasted Ad Spend in Political Campaigns

During the last general election, Stirista estimates that campaigns may have wasted over $1 billion in ad spend due to a lack of granular audience insights.

Stirista addresses this by leveraging:

• Year-round consumer data (not just election cycles)
• A 360-degree view of voters
• Real-time data activation

This enables campaigns to:

• Reduce wasted impressions
• Improve targeting accuracy
• Maximize ROI

Connecting with Voters Through Identity-Driven Marketing

With comprehensive consumer data, Stirista empowers advertisers to connect with voters in a more authentic and meaningful way.

This approach is critical in modern political campaigns, where:

• Trust matters
• Relevance drives engagement
• Personalization influences decisions

Maximizing Campaign Performance

As Britten puts it:

“Sure, if money is no issue, then spend it like crazy. But there are more effective ways to spend campaign funds.”

By leveraging identity-driven data and behavioral insights, Stirista helps campaigns:

• Optimize budget allocation
• Improve audience targeting
• Achieve better results

Originally published in Marketing Dive